With the first game of the season in the books, and the first weekend of games upon us, it is time for my predictions for the year. I will break down each division, first based on standings, and then on each team's season outlook. I will ignore records, because- honestly- what's the point?
AFC
East
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Not much changes here from last year. The Bills and Dolphins are pretty interchangeable in their ability to get completely over-matched most of the time. In all likelihood, the Patriots will run away with the division, once again, and will have one of the best records in the league. They are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Jets? Not so much. The Jets will vie for a playoff spot, but I'm not so sure they get it. Their future will very much be determined by how they play in the last weeks of the season.
North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
The Ravens are quickly becoming THE AFC North team. The Pittsburgh Steelers are falling apart with age, and they really are a shallow offense team. Hines Ward's retirement makes Mike Wallace the Steelers' main receiving threat, and teams with good corners will easily limit his action. The Ravens can only get better, and the rapport between Andy Dalton and AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham will be stronger. The addition of The Lawfirm (BenJarvis Green-Ellis) won't hurt, either. The Browns will be better than last year, thanks to Trent Richardson, but, they're still the Browns, and they're still in the North, which produced both Wild Card teams last season.
South
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
After the Texans, this is one of the weakest divisions in the league. The Colts were terrible last year without a legitimate QB, and with Andrew Luck they will definitely improve. But, that doesn't make them better than anyone except the Jaguars, whose only real addition is Justin Blackmon, another TO-type, but without as much talent. The Titans will remain middle of the road, occasionally challenging legitimate playoff teams.
West
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
The West will once again be the tightest division in the AFC. Once again, the Broncos will come out on top. The Chargers are better than they seem, especially with the addition of Robert Meacham. If Ryan Matthews stays healthy, they could legitimately contend for the playoffs. I expect them to get a Wild Card spot. The return Dwayne Bowe and the addition of Patrick Hillis improves their offense, but they're still not a playoff team. Maybe next year. Oakland? Carson Palmer may be the best QB they've had in a decade, but they're still a few pieces away from being a playoff team.
NFC
East
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins
The Dream Team comes together as a team this year, and the Eagles walk away with the division. They improved their defense and offensive line, and seem to have all the right pieces in place. If Michael Vick stays healthy, Philly is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The defending champs, the Giants, won't struggle, but they didn't dominate until the last few weeks last year. They will still make the playoffs, but don't expect a repeat. The Cowboys DID improve their secondary, a crucial move for this division, but they still lack the most important piece; a QB who works well under pressure. The Redskins drafted RGIII, and got Pierre Garcon, but they still need help on offense. Good thing RGIII can run, because they're going to need him to.
North
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Not much needs to be said here. The lack of Jahvid Best may hurt the Lions in the long-run, but they're in the playoffs based on everybody else. This young team is only getting better; expect them to challenge for the division as soon as 2013. The Bears and Vikings will remain mostly irrelevant.
South
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The sanctions against the Saints will hurt. Jonathan Vilma was a big part of their illegal bounty program that made up their defense, so his loss will be major. The departure's of Pierre Garcon and Robert Meacham lower Brees number of previously used receivers, but, being Drew Brees, he will find new ones. The Falcons will take this opporunity to win the division, although the Saints will still make the playoffs. The Panthers didn't get better enough to make the playoffs, but they may challenge for a Wild Card by 2013. The Bucs are still a few years ago.
West
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
There is no real description necessary for this division. The 49ers aren't Super Bowl contenders, but they're much better than every other team in the division. The Seahawks are on their way to being a playoff
challenge, but this year they won't make it.
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Broncos over Bengals
Ravens over Chargers
Divisional Round
Patriots over Broncos
Texans over Ravens
AFC Championship
Patriots over Ravens
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Giants over 49ers
Falcons over Saints
Divisional Round
Eagles over Falcons
Packers over Giants
NFC Championship
Eagles over Packers
Super Bowl
Eagles over Patriots 27-24
Friday, September 7, 2012
Sunday, September 2, 2012
The 2013 Manager of the Boston Red Sox
2012 has been an absolute disaster for the Red Sox. Following the dramatic collapse in September 2011, nothing has really gone well for the Red Sox, minus the Cody Ross signing. As is usual with good teams that fail, a lot of talk has been made about the coaching, specifically manager Bobby Valentine.
Bobby Valentine is a great manager, and I was pumped when the Red Sox decided to name him their manager last winter. He has gotten a lot of flack throughout the season, which hasn't necessarily been unwarranted. In April, he completely mismanaged the starting rotation, time and time again bringing pitchers back out for another inning, only to implode because they should have been done for the day. His excuse? He wanted the pitchers to know they could trust him, by showing he had trust in them. Not a bad argument, considering his situation as a new manager for the organization. But, facts are facts, and it was- more times than not- the wrong decision.
I work under the assertion that there is very little the manager can be held accountable for. There's the aforementioned removal of starting pitchers, the management of the bullpen (which the manager has the help of the pitching coaches for), and bringing in people off the bench. They also have the responsibility to fight for their team, and get ejected, which Bobby V did his fair share of. I in no way believe that it is Bobby Valentine's fault that the Red Sox suck. That being said, he should be let go.
Bobby V is a great baseball man. He's got great commentary, is a good manager, and is a scholar of the game, all of which make him a great man for baseball. But, he is not the right man for the Boston Red Sox organization, right now. The Sox are in the process of an organizational overhaul, evidenced by the mega-deal that gave them more than a quarter billion of cap space. There is a new direction that Red Sox are headed. This is a gradual process, and it will take a couple years before it all comes to fruition. Bobby Valentine never was the long-term solution at the helm, and he knew that coming in; everyone did.
Everyone in Red Sox Nation knows that plan all along was to make John Farrell manager. He was the best pitching coach the team ever had, and he was expected to take over once Tito retired. Of course, Farrell left the Sox to become the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, much to the Red Sox chagrin. This offseason, the Red Sox tried to lure Farrell back to Boston, but Toronto did not allow it, due to his contract. So, Bobby V was signed to a Farrell-friendly contract that would expire at the same time as Farrell's in Toronto.
Yes, Farrell is still one year away from joining the Red Sox staff, should that happen. So, what do they do in the meantime? They bring in a stopgap, of course! And who is that stopgap, in my opinion? Why, he's a man that knows the organization well, would perform well, and could ably manage for a while, should Farrell not come back. This man is named Brad Mills, and he is currently unemployed.
Mills was Terry Francona's bench coach until 2009, when he became the manager of the Houston Astros. I was happy for Mills to get the chance to manage, but sad that it would be for the terrible Astros. I knew it would only be a matter of time until he was fired, because that's what you do in baseball when you're a mid-level team that continues to not win. Mills was fired August 18. It wasn't his fault that the Astros were terrible, and it is not indicative of his managing ability.
If not Mills, who else would the Red Sox choose, should they let Bobby V go? Sure, they could go the rout that the White Sox and Cardinals went, and signed a former star player who is a few years removed from their playing days and bring back a Bill Mueller or a Trot Nixon. Some people are clamoring to make Jason Varitek the manager, as he clearly has major league coaching in his future. My take? Yeah, bring back Tek; but not as manager.
Jason Varitek wasn't a good catcher his last 2-3 years with the Red Sox. But they kept him around because of ability to put the pitchers at ease, make them comfortable. He was a great pitchers' catcher. That's why he should be the new pitching coach. Yes, I know, Jason Varitek is not a pitcher, but I don't think that matters. Tek understands pitchers, and knows when things aren't going right, and why. He could be bad, sure, but what's the harm in trying? Plus, there's no way the pitchers will perform as badly as they have this season. It's worth a shot.
So, Brad Mills at the helm, Jason Varitek at pitching coach. Heck, even make Tek bench coach. Bringing back Mills and Varitek would be great for organizational morale, if nothing else.
Bobby Valentine is a great manager, and I was pumped when the Red Sox decided to name him their manager last winter. He has gotten a lot of flack throughout the season, which hasn't necessarily been unwarranted. In April, he completely mismanaged the starting rotation, time and time again bringing pitchers back out for another inning, only to implode because they should have been done for the day. His excuse? He wanted the pitchers to know they could trust him, by showing he had trust in them. Not a bad argument, considering his situation as a new manager for the organization. But, facts are facts, and it was- more times than not- the wrong decision.
I work under the assertion that there is very little the manager can be held accountable for. There's the aforementioned removal of starting pitchers, the management of the bullpen (which the manager has the help of the pitching coaches for), and bringing in people off the bench. They also have the responsibility to fight for their team, and get ejected, which Bobby V did his fair share of. I in no way believe that it is Bobby Valentine's fault that the Red Sox suck. That being said, he should be let go.
Bobby V is a great baseball man. He's got great commentary, is a good manager, and is a scholar of the game, all of which make him a great man for baseball. But, he is not the right man for the Boston Red Sox organization, right now. The Sox are in the process of an organizational overhaul, evidenced by the mega-deal that gave them more than a quarter billion of cap space. There is a new direction that Red Sox are headed. This is a gradual process, and it will take a couple years before it all comes to fruition. Bobby Valentine never was the long-term solution at the helm, and he knew that coming in; everyone did.
Everyone in Red Sox Nation knows that plan all along was to make John Farrell manager. He was the best pitching coach the team ever had, and he was expected to take over once Tito retired. Of course, Farrell left the Sox to become the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, much to the Red Sox chagrin. This offseason, the Red Sox tried to lure Farrell back to Boston, but Toronto did not allow it, due to his contract. So, Bobby V was signed to a Farrell-friendly contract that would expire at the same time as Farrell's in Toronto.
Yes, Farrell is still one year away from joining the Red Sox staff, should that happen. So, what do they do in the meantime? They bring in a stopgap, of course! And who is that stopgap, in my opinion? Why, he's a man that knows the organization well, would perform well, and could ably manage for a while, should Farrell not come back. This man is named Brad Mills, and he is currently unemployed.
Mills was Terry Francona's bench coach until 2009, when he became the manager of the Houston Astros. I was happy for Mills to get the chance to manage, but sad that it would be for the terrible Astros. I knew it would only be a matter of time until he was fired, because that's what you do in baseball when you're a mid-level team that continues to not win. Mills was fired August 18. It wasn't his fault that the Astros were terrible, and it is not indicative of his managing ability.
If not Mills, who else would the Red Sox choose, should they let Bobby V go? Sure, they could go the rout that the White Sox and Cardinals went, and signed a former star player who is a few years removed from their playing days and bring back a Bill Mueller or a Trot Nixon. Some people are clamoring to make Jason Varitek the manager, as he clearly has major league coaching in his future. My take? Yeah, bring back Tek; but not as manager.
Jason Varitek wasn't a good catcher his last 2-3 years with the Red Sox. But they kept him around because of ability to put the pitchers at ease, make them comfortable. He was a great pitchers' catcher. That's why he should be the new pitching coach. Yes, I know, Jason Varitek is not a pitcher, but I don't think that matters. Tek understands pitchers, and knows when things aren't going right, and why. He could be bad, sure, but what's the harm in trying? Plus, there's no way the pitchers will perform as badly as they have this season. It's worth a shot.
So, Brad Mills at the helm, Jason Varitek at pitching coach. Heck, even make Tek bench coach. Bringing back Mills and Varitek would be great for organizational morale, if nothing else.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
The biggest trade in the history of the world...or whatever
It's the talk of the sports world, and the culmination of 14 months of rough-going for the Boston Red Sox organization. The Red Sox have traded Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers for James Loney and prospects Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Ivan De Jesus, and Jerry Sands.
When I first heard about this, my heart sank. This was the worst trade the Red Sox had made since trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. And this would not result in a World Series victory. The way I saw it originally, getting rid of Beckett was a great idea, and losing Crawford's gigantic contract (which has hardly worked out) was a good move. But Adrian Gonzalez? I couldn't understand that. I found myself asking whether giving up your best player was necessary to dump salary.
After thinking about it some, and looking into the deal, I am much more okay with it. I definitely do not love the trade, but it has the potential to be a great deal in the future. Here's why:
In addition to the enormous amount of salary coming off the books- freeing up space to lock up Jacoby Ellsbury long-term- the Red Sox receive a package of some highly touted prospects.
Let's take a look at each of them.
Allen Webster: Webster is a 22-year-old righty currently in Double-A. Prior to the 2012 season he was rated the #95 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America and named the Dodgers' #3 prospect by MLB.com. Primarily used as starting pitcher, Webster has a 6-8 record in 22 starts, with an ERA of 3.55 and 117 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings. He is still a few years away from contributing at a major league level, but when he does, he should be great. Webster was a piece of a proposed trade that would have brought Ryan Dempster to LA at the trade deadline, but Ned Colletti and co. balked at that idea.
Ivan De Jesus: De Jesus is a 25-year-old utility player, who has seen time at second base, third base, shortstop and has even seen time in the corner outfield positions this season. He has been called up to the majors in each of the last two seasons. De Jesus has no power whatsoever and average speed, at best. He does have a average, though, with a career .297 batting average in eight minor league seasons. He will most likely serve as organizational depth, for now.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a big (6'4", 225) 24-year-old 1B/3B/outfielder. He has big power and average speed. He has 24 homers and 101 RBI through 109 games at Triple-A Albuquerque this year and has 35 and 29 home runs over the past two seasons. Sands has been called a "Jason Bay Lite" type of player, and has the potential to fight for the starting first base spot in 2013. He as a .290 minor league career average and figures to play for Boston as soon as this season. Look for Sands to make an impact very soon.
Rubby De La Rosa: De La Rosa is 23-year-old righty. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but was seen hitting 95 on the radar gun as recently as last week. He has been known to throw over 100, but is still young. He was rated the #90 prospect pre-2011 by Baseball America. He is technically in Triple-A, but has never played a game above Double-A. If all goes according to plan, De La Rosa will compete for a spot in the rotation in 2013, but that is being optimistic. He has the stuff to be a legitimate fireballer. The question is when he will "arrive."
The prospects Boston receives are definitely a good group to acquire, but are they worth the price? For the Dodgers, this trade was all about getting Gonzalez. For Boston, they were only able to dump Crawford and Beckett's bad contracts/attitudes by including Gonzalez. Gonzalez, arguably, also had a bad contract, and Boston may have realized the error of their (Theo's) ways. Those big contracts were bad for business and this trade cleans the books. Will Jerry Sands be as good as Adrian Gonzalez? Probably not, but the payroll reduction ($260 million) is a huge relief for the Red Sox, who now have the space to make moves. The Red Sox weren't winning after two seasons with Crawford and Gonzalez's contracts, so I understand the logic behind the deal. Beckett was a huge problem in the clubhouse and everyone can agree that he had to go. Would I have made this deal, were I Ben Cherington? No. But, it is most likely a step in the right direction given the turmoil in Boston over the past year. Bobby Valentine himself admitted that something needed to be done, and I agree with him (for a change). If this trade could have been made without Adrian Gonzalez, this would be a phenomenal trade. With him? The jury is out, at least until these prospects come up. Think of it this way: the Red Sox never had Adrian Gonzalez, and just traded Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo for four prospects who are probably better than either of them, as a whole.
I'm no longer on the verge of tears for losing Gonzalez, but he will be missed.
I give this trade, at this current juncture, a C. That may change for the positive or negative, neither which will be apparent until next season. Time will tell, as they say.
The Red Sox also got rid of Nick "Shredder" Punto, which saves the Red Sox money in the uniform department.
When I first heard about this, my heart sank. This was the worst trade the Red Sox had made since trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. And this would not result in a World Series victory. The way I saw it originally, getting rid of Beckett was a great idea, and losing Crawford's gigantic contract (which has hardly worked out) was a good move. But Adrian Gonzalez? I couldn't understand that. I found myself asking whether giving up your best player was necessary to dump salary.
After thinking about it some, and looking into the deal, I am much more okay with it. I definitely do not love the trade, but it has the potential to be a great deal in the future. Here's why:
In addition to the enormous amount of salary coming off the books- freeing up space to lock up Jacoby Ellsbury long-term- the Red Sox receive a package of some highly touted prospects.
Let's take a look at each of them.
Allen Webster: Webster is a 22-year-old righty currently in Double-A. Prior to the 2012 season he was rated the #95 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America and named the Dodgers' #3 prospect by MLB.com. Primarily used as starting pitcher, Webster has a 6-8 record in 22 starts, with an ERA of 3.55 and 117 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings. He is still a few years away from contributing at a major league level, but when he does, he should be great. Webster was a piece of a proposed trade that would have brought Ryan Dempster to LA at the trade deadline, but Ned Colletti and co. balked at that idea.
Ivan De Jesus: De Jesus is a 25-year-old utility player, who has seen time at second base, third base, shortstop and has even seen time in the corner outfield positions this season. He has been called up to the majors in each of the last two seasons. De Jesus has no power whatsoever and average speed, at best. He does have a average, though, with a career .297 batting average in eight minor league seasons. He will most likely serve as organizational depth, for now.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a big (6'4", 225) 24-year-old 1B/3B/outfielder. He has big power and average speed. He has 24 homers and 101 RBI through 109 games at Triple-A Albuquerque this year and has 35 and 29 home runs over the past two seasons. Sands has been called a "Jason Bay Lite" type of player, and has the potential to fight for the starting first base spot in 2013. He as a .290 minor league career average and figures to play for Boston as soon as this season. Look for Sands to make an impact very soon.
Rubby De La Rosa: De La Rosa is 23-year-old righty. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but was seen hitting 95 on the radar gun as recently as last week. He has been known to throw over 100, but is still young. He was rated the #90 prospect pre-2011 by Baseball America. He is technically in Triple-A, but has never played a game above Double-A. If all goes according to plan, De La Rosa will compete for a spot in the rotation in 2013, but that is being optimistic. He has the stuff to be a legitimate fireballer. The question is when he will "arrive."
The prospects Boston receives are definitely a good group to acquire, but are they worth the price? For the Dodgers, this trade was all about getting Gonzalez. For Boston, they were only able to dump Crawford and Beckett's bad contracts/attitudes by including Gonzalez. Gonzalez, arguably, also had a bad contract, and Boston may have realized the error of their (Theo's) ways. Those big contracts were bad for business and this trade cleans the books. Will Jerry Sands be as good as Adrian Gonzalez? Probably not, but the payroll reduction ($260 million) is a huge relief for the Red Sox, who now have the space to make moves. The Red Sox weren't winning after two seasons with Crawford and Gonzalez's contracts, so I understand the logic behind the deal. Beckett was a huge problem in the clubhouse and everyone can agree that he had to go. Would I have made this deal, were I Ben Cherington? No. But, it is most likely a step in the right direction given the turmoil in Boston over the past year. Bobby Valentine himself admitted that something needed to be done, and I agree with him (for a change). If this trade could have been made without Adrian Gonzalez, this would be a phenomenal trade. With him? The jury is out, at least until these prospects come up. Think of it this way: the Red Sox never had Adrian Gonzalez, and just traded Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo for four prospects who are probably better than either of them, as a whole.
I'm no longer on the verge of tears for losing Gonzalez, but he will be missed.
I give this trade, at this current juncture, a C. That may change for the positive or negative, neither which will be apparent until next season. Time will tell, as they say.
The Red Sox also got rid of Nick "Shredder" Punto, which saves the Red Sox money in the uniform department.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Quick post: Why last night's victory is great news
For those of you who didn't catch light nights exciting Sunday Night Baseball game between the Red Sox and the Yankees, you only missed the turn around in the Red Sox season. No big deal.
To begin with, taking two out of three games from the New York Yankees IN New York is a big deal on it's own. As is getting back to .500. As is doing it in extra innings. All of those compounded are a pretty big deal. Paired with the events of the exciting 10th inning, this victory will change the face of the Red Sox for the remainder of the season. Here's the run down:
Will Middlebrooks up to bat, one on. He shows bunt, but pulls back when realizes its coming inside. It hits him on the wrist and hits the ump. Both fall to the ground in pain. Does Middlebrooks get first base? Nope! Umps assert it hit the bat for strike two. Bobby V comes out to argue, and it's quite easy to see the ejection coming. But, being Bobby V and the Red Sox manager, he's got to get his money's worth. He starts back to the dugout still infuriated, sees Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett - among others - also enraged, shouting at the umps. Bobby V goes back for one more spat and then retires into the dugout, but not before throwing his gum at the dugout wall. He stays to give one last sign while Beckett continues his tirade and gets himself ejected, too.
Middlebrooks eventually got to first on a single, and Pedro Ciriaco hit the game-winning bloop single moments later. Very exciting!
Why does this matter? Managers getting ejected always fires up their team, and this is the perfect time to light a fire under the Red Sox, especially after some questionable comments from Orel Hershiser that were quickly repudiated. (Hershiser claimed Andrew Miller was non-chalant, jovial, and uninterested after leaving after putting the would-be go-ahead run on base. Miller told reporters that teammates were keeping things cool for him so he didn't get too upset with himself)
With Beckett, this is great for many reasons: 1. Any time a player gets ejected for arguing for a teammate they gain a lot of points. 2. Beckett has been under attack for not caring and having no intensity since Chicken & Beergate. This showed his fire that made him such a good pitcher. 3. With recent trade rumors - which Ben Cherington has said are false - it shows that Beckett wants to be there, or at least does care about being in Boston and his teammates.
The Red Sox needed something dramatic to keep their momentum moving forward. Reaching .500 again, winning against the Yankees, in extra innings, at Yankee Stadium, where your manager and embattled pitcher get ejected has got to be the perfect storm. It's up and up for the Red Sox now.
To begin with, taking two out of three games from the New York Yankees IN New York is a big deal on it's own. As is getting back to .500. As is doing it in extra innings. All of those compounded are a pretty big deal. Paired with the events of the exciting 10th inning, this victory will change the face of the Red Sox for the remainder of the season. Here's the run down:
Will Middlebrooks up to bat, one on. He shows bunt, but pulls back when realizes its coming inside. It hits him on the wrist and hits the ump. Both fall to the ground in pain. Does Middlebrooks get first base? Nope! Umps assert it hit the bat for strike two. Bobby V comes out to argue, and it's quite easy to see the ejection coming. But, being Bobby V and the Red Sox manager, he's got to get his money's worth. He starts back to the dugout still infuriated, sees Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett - among others - also enraged, shouting at the umps. Bobby V goes back for one more spat and then retires into the dugout, but not before throwing his gum at the dugout wall. He stays to give one last sign while Beckett continues his tirade and gets himself ejected, too.
Middlebrooks eventually got to first on a single, and Pedro Ciriaco hit the game-winning bloop single moments later. Very exciting!
Why does this matter? Managers getting ejected always fires up their team, and this is the perfect time to light a fire under the Red Sox, especially after some questionable comments from Orel Hershiser that were quickly repudiated. (Hershiser claimed Andrew Miller was non-chalant, jovial, and uninterested after leaving after putting the would-be go-ahead run on base. Miller told reporters that teammates were keeping things cool for him so he didn't get too upset with himself)
With Beckett, this is great for many reasons: 1. Any time a player gets ejected for arguing for a teammate they gain a lot of points. 2. Beckett has been under attack for not caring and having no intensity since Chicken & Beergate. This showed his fire that made him such a good pitcher. 3. With recent trade rumors - which Ben Cherington has said are false - it shows that Beckett wants to be there, or at least does care about being in Boston and his teammates.
The Red Sox needed something dramatic to keep their momentum moving forward. Reaching .500 again, winning against the Yankees, in extra innings, at Yankee Stadium, where your manager and embattled pitcher get ejected has got to be the perfect storm. It's up and up for the Red Sox now.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Zack Greinke trade reaction
This week, the inevitable happened. Zack Greinke was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for three prospects. This trade has been probably the biggest trade of the Trade Deadline 2012, beating out the Hanleywood deal. Greinke was the best pitcher on the market after Cole Hamels signed his humongous-big extension with the Phillies. (Ilya Bryzgalov reference there, for those not in the know) This is a seemingly huge move for the Angels, who are widely seen as a World Series contender, especially following this trade. However, this post will show how this may be a disaster in the waiting.
Zach Greinke has been a top pitcher for years. A former #1 draft pick in 2002, Donald Zachary Greinke (That's right, his name is Donald) was the lone bright spot on Kansas City's pitching staff for years. He's been the Brewers ace since they acquired him in late 2010. He's now headed to LA for some prospects. He will fail.
Greinke has had anxiety issues in the past. He has social anxiety disorder (SAD), and it has hurt him in the past. He took the 2006 season mostly off when the depression got bad and he alienated himself from the rest of the Royals clubhouse. This was following his sophomore campaign, where he lost 17 games. In 2007, Greinke eased back into a starting role, but spent the majority of the season in relief. Historically, Greinke has not performed well while being scrutinized or under pressure, a product of his anxiety. Kansas City is a small market, with about as little scrutiny as a player can get outside of Florida. Milwaukee is a larger market, but not by much. LA is a much, much larger market (one of the largest, actually) and the fans expect nothing less than success. They also spent their off-season throwing money at Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, with the intention of being a perennial World Series contender. While it is not completely clear, it seems like Art Moreno and the Angels organization will try to sign Greinke to a long term extension, and make him part of their future.
Realistically, the Angels will make the playoffs. Sure, they may not win their division, but they will definitely take one of the wild card spots, barring unforeseen circumstances. That will mean Greinke will have to pitch in the playoffs. The playoffs are high pressure and therefore not Greinke's cup of tea. In Greinke's first foray into October baseball last season the pressure, yet again, beat him.
His first outing was not terrible, but it was not good. In five innings, Greinke was scorched by three home runs and eight hits for four earned runs. He also struck out seven. No thanks to Greinke, the Brewers went on to win the game 9-4.
The Brewers made it to the NLCS after a five game NLDS, leaving Greinke slated to start Game 1 against the Cardinals, the eventual World Series champions. Greinke did not fare much better than in his first playoff appearance. In six innings he gave up another eight hits, walked two and gave up SIX runs. He struck out six. That was enough to earn him the win, somehow.
In Game 5, Greinke had an odd game. He pitched 5.2 innings, giving up five runs, two of which were earned. Seemingly, he had not pitched as badly as before. Yet, he kept up his average of giving up five runs per playoff start, even if only two were earned from his pitching, and not errors. He did not give up any home runs, but also didn't strike out anyone.
What does that suggest? It suggests that Greinke still does not deal well with pressure. Playoff pressure was the most pressure he's ever had, and that will only be compounded by pitching in LA. The intent in acquiring Greinke was for him to improve their team, but I'm unsure if that will happen.
Not only has Greinke been traded, which is stressful, but it is mid-season. He doesn't have time to adjust, like he did when he was traded during the winter two years ago. Greinke may need some time to adjust to a new, well, everything. It may take him the rest of the season. He could not pitch well again this year (he's only had one quality start since June 28) and may become a liability. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but it is a legitimate possibility. Is he an improvement over Ervin Santana and Garrett Richards? On any normal day, yes. But, the argument I'm making is that there may not be another normal day this season for the temperamental Greinke.
While we're at it, let's take a look at Greinke's stats. He is having a pretty good season, posting a 3.44 ERA, the second lowest it has been in his career, the first being the ridiculous 2.16 Cy Young Award-winning 2009 season. Greinke averages a 3.79 ERA, which is nothing special. He is on pace for another 200 strikeout season. Bottom line is, if Greinke keeps up pitching the way he has this season (minus July) this will have been a great deal for the Angels, who will probably win the World Series, as long as Greinke doesn't bring them down with his inability to pitch in the playoffs. But, my assertion is that it is not as simple as that, and Greinke may struggle. Only time will tell.
Zach Greinke has been a top pitcher for years. A former #1 draft pick in 2002, Donald Zachary Greinke (That's right, his name is Donald) was the lone bright spot on Kansas City's pitching staff for years. He's been the Brewers ace since they acquired him in late 2010. He's now headed to LA for some prospects. He will fail.
Greinke has had anxiety issues in the past. He has social anxiety disorder (SAD), and it has hurt him in the past. He took the 2006 season mostly off when the depression got bad and he alienated himself from the rest of the Royals clubhouse. This was following his sophomore campaign, where he lost 17 games. In 2007, Greinke eased back into a starting role, but spent the majority of the season in relief. Historically, Greinke has not performed well while being scrutinized or under pressure, a product of his anxiety. Kansas City is a small market, with about as little scrutiny as a player can get outside of Florida. Milwaukee is a larger market, but not by much. LA is a much, much larger market (one of the largest, actually) and the fans expect nothing less than success. They also spent their off-season throwing money at Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, with the intention of being a perennial World Series contender. While it is not completely clear, it seems like Art Moreno and the Angels organization will try to sign Greinke to a long term extension, and make him part of their future.
Realistically, the Angels will make the playoffs. Sure, they may not win their division, but they will definitely take one of the wild card spots, barring unforeseen circumstances. That will mean Greinke will have to pitch in the playoffs. The playoffs are high pressure and therefore not Greinke's cup of tea. In Greinke's first foray into October baseball last season the pressure, yet again, beat him.
His first outing was not terrible, but it was not good. In five innings, Greinke was scorched by three home runs and eight hits for four earned runs. He also struck out seven. No thanks to Greinke, the Brewers went on to win the game 9-4.
The Brewers made it to the NLCS after a five game NLDS, leaving Greinke slated to start Game 1 against the Cardinals, the eventual World Series champions. Greinke did not fare much better than in his first playoff appearance. In six innings he gave up another eight hits, walked two and gave up SIX runs. He struck out six. That was enough to earn him the win, somehow.
In Game 5, Greinke had an odd game. He pitched 5.2 innings, giving up five runs, two of which were earned. Seemingly, he had not pitched as badly as before. Yet, he kept up his average of giving up five runs per playoff start, even if only two were earned from his pitching, and not errors. He did not give up any home runs, but also didn't strike out anyone.
What does that suggest? It suggests that Greinke still does not deal well with pressure. Playoff pressure was the most pressure he's ever had, and that will only be compounded by pitching in LA. The intent in acquiring Greinke was for him to improve their team, but I'm unsure if that will happen.
Not only has Greinke been traded, which is stressful, but it is mid-season. He doesn't have time to adjust, like he did when he was traded during the winter two years ago. Greinke may need some time to adjust to a new, well, everything. It may take him the rest of the season. He could not pitch well again this year (he's only had one quality start since June 28) and may become a liability. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but it is a legitimate possibility. Is he an improvement over Ervin Santana and Garrett Richards? On any normal day, yes. But, the argument I'm making is that there may not be another normal day this season for the temperamental Greinke.
While we're at it, let's take a look at Greinke's stats. He is having a pretty good season, posting a 3.44 ERA, the second lowest it has been in his career, the first being the ridiculous 2.16 Cy Young Award-winning 2009 season. Greinke averages a 3.79 ERA, which is nothing special. He is on pace for another 200 strikeout season. Bottom line is, if Greinke keeps up pitching the way he has this season (minus July) this will have been a great deal for the Angels, who will probably win the World Series, as long as Greinke doesn't bring them down with his inability to pitch in the playoffs. But, my assertion is that it is not as simple as that, and Greinke may struggle. Only time will tell.
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Syracuse Chiefs vs. Norfolk Tides, July 20, 2012
Last night, July 20, the Newhouse School offered free tickets to the Syracuse Chiefs' game. The Chiefs are the Triple-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Of course, as an avid baseball fan I jumped at the opportunity, and decided to use the game as this week's blog post. If you follow me on Twitter (@markcvolain) you would also have noticed me live tweeting the game.
The original plan was to come home after the game and write the blog post that night, like a real game story, but this little move called The Dark Knight Rises got in the way of that. So, for your enjoyment, here is the game story for last night's Chiefs-Norfolk Tides game. I promise you, this is one of the most exciting games I have even blogged about.
The game was pitched by two guys people may actually know: Lefty Zach Duke took the mound for the Chiefs, a team that for some reason is represented by a train, while lefty Brian Matusz, of Baltimore Orioles fame, was on the Tide's bump.
Duke did not begin the game well, giving up a lead off single to LJ Hoes, who would advance to second on a fielder's choice. Hoes was then driven in by former Minnesota Twin Lew Ford, who hit a deep fly ball to center field for a ground rule double. Two batters later, Ford was driven in by former Pittsburgh Pirate Ronny Paulino. After half an inning, I'd learned that the Tides were made up of a lot of guys who had been in the majors. They led 2-0.
The next inning went six up, six down, and the inning following that was uneventful, at best. After two and half, the Tides still led 2-0.
Former Cubs backup catcher Koyie Hill led off the bottom of the third with a line drive sharply down the right field line. He advanced to second on a wild pitch. Josh Johnson (not the Marlins pitcher) then drove him in with an RBI double down the left field line. 2-1 Tides.
Corey Brown the undoubted 1st half MVP for the Chiefs (.301/21/58/13SB) singles Johnson in, and steals second before getting stranded. After 3, it's 2-2.
The Chiefs turned a nice double play to end the Tides' half of the fourth before coming up for some more runs.
Hill hit his first double of the season (at this level) to drive in former Marlin Brett Carroll, followed by Eury Perez's first Triple-A hit and RBI, as he was called up from Harrisburg prior to the game. 4-2 Cheifs after 4.
In the Tides' half of the fifth, the only excitement came from Zelous Wheeler (who is up for the Best Name in Sports Award) reached first when Zach Duke did not catch the flip from first baseman Carlos Rivero. Lucky for Duke, nothing came of it, and he escaped the inning.
Brown singles to lead off the Chiefs' fifth, and scored on a Jesus Valdez double. Valdez would later score after a fielder's choice sent him to third and Rivero hit a sac fly. After 5, 6-2 Chiefs.
The most exciting inning of the game had arrived. With one out in the top of the sixth, Ronny Paulino singled, setting up former Red Sox farmhand Luis Exposito to hit 2-run homer to deep center. 6-4 Chiefs. Jamie Hoffman hit a triple that Duke left right over the plate, but Duke was able to escape without giving up any more runs.
Let me preface the bottom of the sixth with a few notes: Carol M. Baldwin, the mother of the Baldwin Brother's, lives in the Syracuse area. Semi-regularly her sons are in the area for charity events and the like. Carol has a cancer foundation, and July 20th's game was a night where she hosted a fundraiser at the New Alliance Bank Stadium. There was word that Billy was in the building.
The bottom of the sixth began, and it became clear to me and my fellow Newhouser's that Billy Baldwin was in the aisle behind home plate, taking pictures with people. Sure enough, there he was, wearing a pink and black Chiefs uniform (the team wore them for the charity event), taking pictures with a few people. So, my friend Kristina and I got up, and went over to where Billy was, in an attempt to get a picture with him.
With one out, we had reached the level Billy was on when the fans got noisy. Luis Exposito and catcher Koyie Hill had begun fighting, with no obvious reason apparent to me or Kristina, who were focused on getting to Billy. In the end, Hill ended up wrestling Exposito to the ground, and then began pulling at his legs. Not sure why. Here is a picture of the cleared benches, reminiscent of Halloween.
The original plan was to come home after the game and write the blog post that night, like a real game story, but this little move called The Dark Knight Rises got in the way of that. So, for your enjoyment, here is the game story for last night's Chiefs-Norfolk Tides game. I promise you, this is one of the most exciting games I have even blogged about.
The game was pitched by two guys people may actually know: Lefty Zach Duke took the mound for the Chiefs, a team that for some reason is represented by a train, while lefty Brian Matusz, of Baltimore Orioles fame, was on the Tide's bump.
Duke did not begin the game well, giving up a lead off single to LJ Hoes, who would advance to second on a fielder's choice. Hoes was then driven in by former Minnesota Twin Lew Ford, who hit a deep fly ball to center field for a ground rule double. Two batters later, Ford was driven in by former Pittsburgh Pirate Ronny Paulino. After half an inning, I'd learned that the Tides were made up of a lot of guys who had been in the majors. They led 2-0.
The next inning went six up, six down, and the inning following that was uneventful, at best. After two and half, the Tides still led 2-0.
Former Cubs backup catcher Koyie Hill led off the bottom of the third with a line drive sharply down the right field line. He advanced to second on a wild pitch. Josh Johnson (not the Marlins pitcher) then drove him in with an RBI double down the left field line. 2-1 Tides.
Corey Brown the undoubted 1st half MVP for the Chiefs (.301/21/58/13SB) singles Johnson in, and steals second before getting stranded. After 3, it's 2-2.
The Chiefs turned a nice double play to end the Tides' half of the fourth before coming up for some more runs.
Hill hit his first double of the season (at this level) to drive in former Marlin Brett Carroll, followed by Eury Perez's first Triple-A hit and RBI, as he was called up from Harrisburg prior to the game. 4-2 Cheifs after 4.
In the Tides' half of the fifth, the only excitement came from Zelous Wheeler (who is up for the Best Name in Sports Award) reached first when Zach Duke did not catch the flip from first baseman Carlos Rivero. Lucky for Duke, nothing came of it, and he escaped the inning.
Brown singles to lead off the Chiefs' fifth, and scored on a Jesus Valdez double. Valdez would later score after a fielder's choice sent him to third and Rivero hit a sac fly. After 5, 6-2 Chiefs.
The most exciting inning of the game had arrived. With one out in the top of the sixth, Ronny Paulino singled, setting up former Red Sox farmhand Luis Exposito to hit 2-run homer to deep center. 6-4 Chiefs. Jamie Hoffman hit a triple that Duke left right over the plate, but Duke was able to escape without giving up any more runs.
Let me preface the bottom of the sixth with a few notes: Carol M. Baldwin, the mother of the Baldwin Brother's, lives in the Syracuse area. Semi-regularly her sons are in the area for charity events and the like. Carol has a cancer foundation, and July 20th's game was a night where she hosted a fundraiser at the New Alliance Bank Stadium. There was word that Billy was in the building.
The bottom of the sixth began, and it became clear to me and my fellow Newhouser's that Billy Baldwin was in the aisle behind home plate, taking pictures with people. Sure enough, there he was, wearing a pink and black Chiefs uniform (the team wore them for the charity event), taking pictures with a few people. So, my friend Kristina and I got up, and went over to where Billy was, in an attempt to get a picture with him.
With one out, we had reached the level Billy was on when the fans got noisy. Luis Exposito and catcher Koyie Hill had begun fighting, with no obvious reason apparent to me or Kristina, who were focused on getting to Billy. In the end, Hill ended up wrestling Exposito to the ground, and then began pulling at his legs. Not sure why. Here is a picture of the cleared benches, reminiscent of Halloween.
Hill and Exposito were both ejected, and replaced with new catchers.
With the excitement of the skirmish over, it was Billy Baldwin time. Just before the fight, Billy rushed off down the first base line, but was expected back, as his handler was still over where we were. When Billy got back, I immediately approached him and asked for a picture. "Real quick, I gotta go," he responded. So, I met Billy Baldwin!
So, after an exciting 6th inning, the Chiefs led 6-4.
After all the excitement, nothing really happened until the 8th, when Hassan Pena loaded the bases. Relieved by Christian Garcia, the Chiefs walked in a run, making it a one run game. Fortunately for the Chiefs, that would be the last run the Tides scored, and the Chiefs won, holding off a late Tides' rally to win 6-5!
Zach Duke earned his team leading 11th win, and Garcia earned his 4th save of the year.
The Chiefs take on the Tides again tonight, with Mitch Atkins squaring off against Jake Arrieta, who was on my fantasy team fro 2 days earlier this season.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
The 2nd Half- The Boston Red Sox
Anxiety and giving up are hugely popular with fans of the Boston Red Sox lately, and for good reason. The pitching has been terrible, and the offense has been sub-par, at best. However, things are not as bad as they seem. Much like I did after last season's horrific end, I will explain why it is that Red Sox fans should be more like Obama in 2008 and have hope. Scratch that; they should be like Stephen King and Stewart O'Nan and Keep the Faith.
The Pitching
Well, well, the Red Sox, once again, have pitching problems. No doubt about it.
The "Ace," Jon Lester, has an ERA of about 4.50, a number expected for a #4 or 5 pitcher for a team like the Kansas City Royals, not a team that has one of the highest payrolls in baseball.
Josh Beckett has been fighting and angry with the media since last September, and has not pitched particularly consistently.
Clay Buchholz started off the year like a train-wreck, got hurt, and came back as the lone bright spot in the rotation. Then he got hurt again.
Felix Doubront has been pretty good, but not great. Definitely not someone that could shoulder leading a pitching staff.
Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's been Dice-K. What more needs to be said?
Daniel Bard was a bona fide disaster and sits in Pawtucket trying to learn to be a reliever again. Don't expect to see him back up this year, and if he is, don't expect great things.
This all sounds pretty bleak, right? Right. BUT (this is a big 'but,' if you couldn't tell from the capitals and boldness) the rotation cannot continue to be this bad. They just can't. It would be a statistical anomaly for three very good pitchers (Buchholz, Beckett and Lester) to all, on the same, be bad for a whole year after being good for years. Buchholz was a fringe Cy Young candidate on the other side of last year, which he lost to injury. Beckett is tempermental and getting older, but he can still get the job done. Or at least should be getting the job done. For Lester, it is pretty inexplicable. He is the most likely to return to form. Watch out for a great second half from the Ford Truck Man.
It is not clear where he will be on Friday, but Franklin Morales has proven to be huge asset for the staff. His spot starts have been nothing short of impressive. Keeping him the starting rotation is a definite option, and not one that people would complain about.
Bottom line: The rotation can only get better.
The bullpen, aside from the first week or two of the season, has been one of the best in baseball. Alfredo Aceves has proven- as he always does- that he can pitch in any situation. It is quite possible that he will remain the closer for the res of the year, even when Andrew Bailey returns at the end of the month. Which is another good thing! The bullpen is in good shape!
The Offense
Fact: The Red Sox have the 5th best team batting average in the majors. They also have the 2nd most runs scored. Scary.
Fact: The Red Sox have once again faced the injury bug, including legitimate MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury, spark-plug Dustin Pedroia and Carl Crawford, who has yet to show what he did in Tampa in Boston.
Fact: Adrian Gonzalez has performed well under his ability.
Fact: Jacoby and Crawford will be back before the end of the month.
Fact: The Red Sox offense, when healthy, is one of the best, if not the best offense in the league (debatable point: The Texas Rangers).
If you think the Red Sox offense has underperformed, you would be correct. But, to suggest they have sucked is just downright incorrect. BUT, they're going to get much, much better over the rest of the season. So, sit down, chill out, and enjoy the show they will put on.
The second half of the Red Sox season will be absolutely the most exciting thing to witness. They have a lot of ground to cover, but I promise that they will make it fun, and come mid-September watch for the Red Sox to be fighting for a playoff spot. Sure, they're only a .500 team right now, but they are much, much better than that, and you all know it. AL East and the rest of the AL, be afraid, be very afraid.
The Pitching
Well, well, the Red Sox, once again, have pitching problems. No doubt about it.
The "Ace," Jon Lester, has an ERA of about 4.50, a number expected for a #4 or 5 pitcher for a team like the Kansas City Royals, not a team that has one of the highest payrolls in baseball.
Josh Beckett has been fighting and angry with the media since last September, and has not pitched particularly consistently.
Clay Buchholz started off the year like a train-wreck, got hurt, and came back as the lone bright spot in the rotation. Then he got hurt again.
Felix Doubront has been pretty good, but not great. Definitely not someone that could shoulder leading a pitching staff.
Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's been Dice-K. What more needs to be said?
Daniel Bard was a bona fide disaster and sits in Pawtucket trying to learn to be a reliever again. Don't expect to see him back up this year, and if he is, don't expect great things.
This all sounds pretty bleak, right? Right. BUT (this is a big 'but,' if you couldn't tell from the capitals and boldness) the rotation cannot continue to be this bad. They just can't. It would be a statistical anomaly for three very good pitchers (Buchholz, Beckett and Lester) to all, on the same, be bad for a whole year after being good for years. Buchholz was a fringe Cy Young candidate on the other side of last year, which he lost to injury. Beckett is tempermental and getting older, but he can still get the job done. Or at least should be getting the job done. For Lester, it is pretty inexplicable. He is the most likely to return to form. Watch out for a great second half from the Ford Truck Man.
It is not clear where he will be on Friday, but Franklin Morales has proven to be huge asset for the staff. His spot starts have been nothing short of impressive. Keeping him the starting rotation is a definite option, and not one that people would complain about.
Bottom line: The rotation can only get better.
The bullpen, aside from the first week or two of the season, has been one of the best in baseball. Alfredo Aceves has proven- as he always does- that he can pitch in any situation. It is quite possible that he will remain the closer for the res of the year, even when Andrew Bailey returns at the end of the month. Which is another good thing! The bullpen is in good shape!
The Offense
Fact: The Red Sox have the 5th best team batting average in the majors. They also have the 2nd most runs scored. Scary.
Fact: The Red Sox have once again faced the injury bug, including legitimate MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury, spark-plug Dustin Pedroia and Carl Crawford, who has yet to show what he did in Tampa in Boston.
Fact: Adrian Gonzalez has performed well under his ability.
Fact: Jacoby and Crawford will be back before the end of the month.
Fact: The Red Sox offense, when healthy, is one of the best, if not the best offense in the league (debatable point: The Texas Rangers).
If you think the Red Sox offense has underperformed, you would be correct. But, to suggest they have sucked is just downright incorrect. BUT, they're going to get much, much better over the rest of the season. So, sit down, chill out, and enjoy the show they will put on.
The second half of the Red Sox season will be absolutely the most exciting thing to witness. They have a lot of ground to cover, but I promise that they will make it fun, and come mid-September watch for the Red Sox to be fighting for a playoff spot. Sure, they're only a .500 team right now, but they are much, much better than that, and you all know it. AL East and the rest of the AL, be afraid, be very afraid.
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