Saturday, October 13, 2012

State of Red Sox Nation

Yes, here I am, commiserating the woe that is being a Red Sox fan. I hope you enjoy this, because you definitely can't enjoy the state of the Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox are in trouble. No, this isn't news. They've been trouble since August 2011. The trouble with the Boston Red Sox is that they aren't going to win.

The Red Sox may have freed up upwards of $250 million in contract space by unloading the bad contracts of Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford on the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they aren't going to do anything big with that space. The loss of those enormous contracts wasn't just losing contracts or players, it was also losing a philosophy, a way of doing business. The Red Sox will not be offering huge contracts to keep stars in Boston for a decade any time soon. So you can forget about them signing Josh Hamilton to an eight year deal this off season. Not that he'd come to Boston, anyway.

This change in business model is not sustainable. Baseball is a business. The best players want to security of long-term contracts. If the Red Sox don't offer those types of deals, they won't get the best players. It's elementary, really. Sure, the Red Sox will be able to good players in their model of smaller deals, but not great players. Cody Ross seems poised to return, and he has done well in Boston. But is he a bona fide star? No.

Will the Red Sox make the playoffs in the next decade? Maybe. Every team has the ability to make the playoffs. Look at the Oakland Athletics. Or the Baltimore Orioles. Will the A's and O's make the playoffs regularly? Probably not. The Red Sox remain in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, one that features the New York Yankees, a team never afraid to dump buckets of money on stars.

Do the Red Sox have a core of up-and-coming prospects who could turn out to be great, and become bona fide stars? Perhaps. But it would be silly to have lofty expectations like that. In fact, if the Orioles can keep even being just a .500 team, the Red Sox could become perennial fourth place finishers, at least for a few more years.

Saying the Red Sox are in the rebuilding stage is putting it lightly. In the last 13 months, the team has been about as gutted as a baseball organization can be that is not the Florida Marlins following a World Series victory. A new General Manager, three different managers (one not chosen yet), and the dumping of two major contracts that were signed just before the 2011 season. There is no reason for optimism.

The Red Sox need to make a lot of changes this off season. They need a manager who commands respect, is effective and will be around for a while. They need a clearly defined left fielder. They need a first baseman who can hit. They need starting pitching. They need to decide whether they're okay with a soft-hitting shortstop who is a defensive wizard, because, face it, Jose Iglesias is never going to hit well. Plug him in or move on. They also need to decide whether to lock up Jacoby Ellsbury, or trade him for some quality pitching.

The Red Sox have made two good moves since the season ended: Firing Bobby Valentine, and bringing Jason Varitek back into the organization. These are good steps, but those were obvious ones. Brad Pitt would have made those decisions, even when not playing Billy Beane. Ben Cherington, it's time for you to make your impact.

The return to being a successful baseball team will take weeks, months, years. Fans may not see a World Series before 2020. Fans may never see another Boston Red Sox victory parade. The days of pain and suffering spouting from failures and shortcomings that defined Red Sox fans for 86 years are back.

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