This week, the inevitable happened. Zack Greinke was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for three prospects. This trade has been probably the biggest trade of the Trade Deadline 2012, beating out the Hanleywood deal. Greinke was the best pitcher on the market after Cole Hamels signed his humongous-big extension with the Phillies. (Ilya Bryzgalov reference there, for those not in the know) This is a seemingly huge move for the Angels, who are widely seen as a World Series contender, especially following this trade. However, this post will show how this may be a disaster in the waiting.
Zach Greinke has been a top pitcher for years. A former #1 draft pick in 2002, Donald Zachary Greinke (That's right, his name is Donald) was the lone bright spot on Kansas City's pitching staff for years. He's been the Brewers ace since they acquired him in late 2010. He's now headed to LA for some prospects. He will fail.
Greinke has had anxiety issues in the past. He has social anxiety disorder (SAD), and it has hurt him in the past. He took the 2006 season mostly off when the depression got bad and he alienated himself from the rest of the Royals clubhouse. This was following his sophomore campaign, where he lost 17 games. In 2007, Greinke eased back into a starting role, but spent the majority of the season in relief. Historically, Greinke has not performed well while being scrutinized or under pressure, a product of his anxiety. Kansas City is a small market, with about as little scrutiny as a player can get outside of Florida. Milwaukee is a larger market, but not by much. LA is a much, much larger market (one of the largest, actually) and the fans expect nothing less than success. They also spent their off-season throwing money at Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, with the intention of being a perennial World Series contender. While it is not completely clear, it seems like Art Moreno and the Angels organization will try to sign Greinke to a long term extension, and make him part of their future.
Realistically, the Angels will make the playoffs. Sure, they may not win their division, but they will definitely take one of the wild card spots, barring unforeseen circumstances. That will mean Greinke will have to pitch in the playoffs. The playoffs are high pressure and therefore not Greinke's cup of tea. In Greinke's first foray into October baseball last season the pressure, yet again, beat him.
His first outing was not terrible, but it was not good. In five innings, Greinke was scorched by three home runs and eight hits for four earned runs. He also struck out seven. No thanks to Greinke, the Brewers went on to win the game 9-4.
The Brewers made it to the NLCS after a five game NLDS, leaving Greinke slated to start Game 1 against the Cardinals, the eventual World Series champions. Greinke did not fare much better than in his first playoff appearance. In six innings he gave up another eight hits, walked two and gave up SIX runs. He struck out six. That was enough to earn him the win, somehow.
In Game 5, Greinke had an odd game. He pitched 5.2 innings, giving up five runs, two of which were earned. Seemingly, he had not pitched as badly as before. Yet, he kept up his average of giving up five runs per playoff start, even if only two were earned from his pitching, and not errors. He did not give up any home runs, but also didn't strike out anyone.
What does that suggest? It suggests that Greinke still does not deal well with pressure. Playoff pressure was the most pressure he's ever had, and that will only be compounded by pitching in LA. The intent in acquiring Greinke was for him to improve their team, but I'm unsure if that will happen.
Not only has Greinke been traded, which is stressful, but it is mid-season. He doesn't have time to adjust, like he did when he was traded during the winter two years ago. Greinke may need some time to adjust to a new, well, everything. It may take him the rest of the season. He could not pitch well again this year (he's only had one quality start since June 28) and may become a liability. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but it is a legitimate possibility. Is he an improvement over Ervin Santana and Garrett Richards? On any normal day, yes. But, the argument I'm making is that there may not be another normal day this season for the temperamental Greinke.
While we're at it, let's take a look at Greinke's stats. He is having a pretty good season, posting a 3.44 ERA, the second lowest it has been in his career, the first being the ridiculous 2.16 Cy Young Award-winning 2009 season. Greinke averages a 3.79 ERA, which is nothing special. He is on pace for another 200 strikeout season. Bottom line is, if Greinke keeps up pitching the way he has this season (minus July) this will have been a great deal for the Angels, who will probably win the World Series, as long as Greinke doesn't bring them down with his inability to pitch in the playoffs. But, my assertion is that it is not as simple as that, and Greinke may struggle. Only time will tell.
No comments:
Post a Comment