State of Red Sox Nation

Yes, here I am, commiserating the woe that is being a Red Sox fan. I hope you enjoy this, because you definitely can't enjoy the state of the Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox are in trouble. No, this isn't news. They've been trouble since August 2011. The trouble with the Boston Red Sox is that they aren't going to win.

The Red Sox may have freed up upwards of $250 million in contract space by unloading the bad contracts of Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford on the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they aren't going to do anything big with that space. The loss of those enormous contracts wasn't just losing contracts or players, it was also losing a philosophy, a way of doing business. The Red Sox will not be offering huge contracts to keep stars in Boston for a decade any time soon. So you can forget about them signing Josh Hamilton to an eight year deal this off season. Not that he'd come to Boston, anyway.

This change in business model is not sustainable. Baseball is a business. The best players want to security of long-term contracts. If the Red Sox don't offer those types of deals, they won't get the best players. It's elementary, really. Sure, the Red Sox will be able to good players in their model of smaller deals, but not great players. Cody Ross seems poised to return, and he has done well in Boston. But is he a bona fide star? No.

Will the Red Sox make the playoffs in the next decade? Maybe. Every team has the ability to make the playoffs. Look at the Oakland Athletics. Or the Baltimore Orioles. Will the A's and O's make the playoffs regularly? Probably not. The Red Sox remain in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, one that features the New York Yankees, a team never afraid to dump buckets of money on stars.

Do the Red Sox have a core of up-and-coming prospects who could turn out to be great, and become bona fide stars? Perhaps. But it would be silly to have lofty expectations like that. In fact, if the Orioles can keep even being just a .500 team, the Red Sox could become perennial fourth place finishers, at least for a few more years.

Saying the Red Sox are in the rebuilding stage is putting it lightly. In the last 13 months, the team has been about as gutted as a baseball organization can be that is not the Florida Marlins following a World Series victory. A new General Manager, three different managers (one not chosen yet), and the dumping of two major contracts that were signed just before the 2011 season. There is no reason for optimism.

The Red Sox need to make a lot of changes this off season. They need a manager who commands respect, is effective and will be around for a while. They need a clearly defined left fielder. They need a first baseman who can hit. They need starting pitching. They need to decide whether they're okay with a soft-hitting shortstop who is a defensive wizard, because, face it, Jose Iglesias is never going to hit well. Plug him in or move on. They also need to decide whether to lock up Jacoby Ellsbury, or trade him for some quality pitching.

The Red Sox have made two good moves since the season ended: Firing Bobby Valentine, and bringing Jason Varitek back into the organization. These are good steps, but those were obvious ones. Brad Pitt would have made those decisions, even when not playing Billy Beane. Ben Cherington, it's time for you to make your impact.

The return to being a successful baseball team will take weeks, months, years. Fans may not see a World Series before 2020. Fans may never see another Boston Red Sox victory parade. The days of pain and suffering spouting from failures and shortcomings that defined Red Sox fans for 86 years are back.

MLB Regular Season Wrap-Up

It's over, it's done. We don't need to go through any (unscheduled) 1-game playoffs. The playoffs can begin. Now, all that's left is my season wrap-up. I will go through each major league team and briefly asses what their season was like, and what they need to do. Then, I will make my picks for the post-season awards (MVP, Cy Young, etc.). I will ignore making playoff picks, because that's a waste of time.

AL EAST

New York Yankees- 1st place. They're the Yankees. They're where they always are. No surprises here.

Baltimore Orioles- Wild Card. The Fightin' Showalters showed what they are made of this season, and a big props to them. It's a bunch of misfits that somehow came together and had a great season. Could they be like the 2004 Red Sox and somehow win it all? Probably not, which is sad because they will never do this well again. Not any time soon, at least.

Tampa Bay Rays- The Rays almost made the playoffs. And then they didn't. I have a feeling this will be a regular thing for them for the next few years. But, having a healthy Evan Longoria may be the one thing they need to get them back to the playoffs. That and David Price having Cy Young-worthy stats.

Toronto Blue Jays- If someone told you in April that the Blue Jays would finish in fourth, you would not expect it to be ahead of the Red Sox. But they were. Unfortunately for them, they're heading towards another Shea Hillenbrand "sinking ship," (see: malcontent Yunel Escobar). However, they DO have Jose Bautista, who is coming off his worst season since becoming a starter. Yes, he still hit almost 30 homers while spending 1/3 of the year on the DL, but that's not the point...And having Edwin Encarnacion fill in for him seemed to have worked out okay...

Boston Red Sox- I've been writing about them all year, so it's kind of unnecessary. As the Cubs/Mets always say, "Next year's gottta be better, right?" Right...?

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers- 1st place. It's the Miguel Cabrera show in the Detroit, where the first-baseman-playing-third overcame adversity to become the first Triple Crown winner since Yaz in 1967. Good luck to them in the playoffs.

Chicago White Sox- Very impressive showing from a team that was expected to be blown away by the Tigers. Expect good things from them, as long as Dunn and Konerko don't retire and Chris Sale remains an absolute stud starter.

Kansas City Royals- Ask Keegan or my brother, as they both should be able to attest to the fact that I predicted they would finish in third. And finish in third they did. Props, youngins', keep up the good work. See you in the playoffs soon.

Cleveland Indians- It should be interesting to see who they pick at manager. Could very much determine the future of their organization.

Minnesota Twins- I miss the days when I could read a Sports Illustrated article about Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau living together. Those were the days...

AL WEST

Oakland Athletics- First place. Holy crap, these guys finished in first? And here we all were thinking the Angels and Rangers would be fighting for first. I think Jonah Hill summed it up best, "If the A's win it all this year, me and Pitt better get rings."

Texas Rangers- Wild Card. The Rangers, arguably the best team in baseball the last three years, and arguably the biggest chokers since the 2004 Yankees, may have just lost their post-season. By losing out on the division, they are forced into a 1-game playoff. Sure, it's against the O's, but the O's are good. Plus, beating them only pits them against the Yankees. It's an uphill battle. Plus, they will have to consider re-signing Josh Hamilton when the season is all over.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Albert Pujols should have been enough. CJ Wilson should have been frosting. Mike Trout was the best story in baseball this year. Yet, they still didn't make the playoffs. Watch out, though...

Seattle Mariners- Hey M's fans, cheer up! You get to fight with the Astros next year, so you may not finish last!

NL EAST

Washington Nationals- First place. Finally, the Nats made the playoffs. They were the best team in baseball. It only took being the worst team in baseball for 22 years, changing cities, and five extra years of being almost the worst team, but you finally made. Now, if only you'd managed Strasburg better (started his season later, more time between starts, 6 man rotation, etc.) you would automatically be looking at a World Series trophy. Now, you'll have to fight for it.

Atlanta Braves- Wild Card. Congrats on having a great pitching staff. Your offense needs to come up big in the playoffs if you want to go anywhere, though. This is a team to watch in the future.

Philadelphia Phillies- The rebuilding process has begun. It'll be interesting to see how Amaro does it.

New York Mets- You didn't finish last. And Jose Reyes did. Happy?

Miami Marlins- Jeffrey Loria needs to sell this team. He is ruining everything. At the very least, get rid of Ozzie. That was a terrible idea.

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds- First place. Well done, Dusty. I like your team a lot, but I really don't see you getting any better than this. At least not without Billy Hamilton. About that...

St. Louis Cardinals- Wild Card. Thank you, Mike Matheny, for proving that a few-year-removed catcher with no managerial experience can be a good manager. Signed, Jason Varitek. Also, good luck trying to repeat without The Machine.

Milwaukee Brewers- The Brewers come out of every season being okay. It made sense while Prince was there. But now? Ryan Braun's steroids can't be that good...

Pittsburgh Pirates- Remember when the Pirates were in first place and had the likely NL MVP? That was a month ago. Now they only have one of those. Send help.

Chicago Cubs- This rebuilding might take a while...

Houston Astros- Remind me again why moving the worst team in the lesser league to the stronger league, and one of the strongest divisions, is a good idea, please.

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants- First place. The Giants very quietly put together a very nice season. They have some pretty good potential, especially with hitting-his-prime Buster Posey, who really is the next Joe Mauer.

Los Angeles Dodgers- Congrats on taking on $270 million worth of bad contracts in order to make the playoffs! Oh wait...Maybe next year. And Colletti says you're spending more money? Let's see if you can make the Yankees model work.

Arizona Diamondbacks- I really like this team. But I'm not sure why. Maybe it's because they may give the Red Sox Justin Upton...and I like their colors. And stadium.

San Diego Padres- They need to bring those walls in more! And wait a few years for Casey Kelly to develop. And Alonso. Then, they'll challenge.

Colorado Rockies- Unless they do something drastic, this team will be in the same spot next year.

AND NOW, FOR THE AWARDS!

American League

MVP: Mike Trout. Yes, yes, I know, Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Yes, I know, it has not been won since Yaz in 1967. Yes, I know, that was a very long time ago. But guess what? This award isn't called the Triple Crown. Miguel Cabrera won that. This is the MVP. Completely different. I am a firm believer that the three categories that are part of the Triple Crown are not at all indicative of value. Yes, they are impressive, and I am in complete awe that in my lifetime someone has led the league in these three distinct categories. BUT, in the land of baseball, there are always new stats. An important in determining a players value, ie. in a most valuable player award, would be WAR, Wins Above Replacement. This metric measures how many more wins this player have given their team, while compared to someone of average skill at their position. In this stat, Mike Trout leads all of baseball. His WAR is an absurd 10.7. The next closest is a full three wins less, held by the Yankees Robinson Cano (who will probably finish third in MVP voting) at 7.6. A lot of people argue for Cabrera, whose WAR is 6.9, which is only .3 games better than Adrian Beltre, who also plays third and will garner some MVP votes. Sure, Miggy got the Triple Crown. But did he run away with it? No. But Trout ran away with the statistic most relevant to the MVP award.

Cy Young: Jered Weaver. 20 wins (1st), .214 opponents' BA (1st), 1.02 WHIP (1st), 2.81 ERA (3rd). My vote is for him, but I would not be surprised to see it go to Justin Verlander. David Price will finish third.

Rookie of the Year: Did I not also mention that Trout is a rookie. Yeah, that happened. He won this award in July.

National League

MVP: Since the three top candidates (Braun, McCutchen and Posey) are so close in WAR (between 7.0-7.2), you need to dig deeper here. Posey's BA is 9 points higher than McCutchen's, and 17 higher than Brauns. But Braun annihilates the two above him in home runs, RBI, slugging and OPS. He also stole 10 more bases than McCutchen. I give the MVP to Braun (again), although the other two do make strong cases. And if you buy into the "can't be MVP if his team doesn't make the playoffs" nonsense, it obviously goes to Posey. We'll see.

Cy Young: RA Dickey. This is not up for discussion. He was an absolute animal. And he's a knuckleballer, which makes it all the more impressive. 

Rookie of the Year: Wilin Rosario. Out there in Denver, this rookie catcher quietly put up some great numbers. .270 BA, 28 home runs, and 71 RBI. Sure, take your Bryce Harpers and your Todd Frazier's, but this guys got my vote.