Friday, January 27, 2012

Red Sox Offseason (so far)

Following what some would call a disastrous end to the 2011 campaign, many in Red Sox Nation felt big changes needed to be made. I, for one, did not wholly agree, at least on the level of players. Sure, it was Tito's time to go, and sure, Ben Cherington deserved a chance, even at the expense of Theo. Beyond that, I didn't see much need to give the team a face lift. Yes, there were a few pieces missing, including a hole that would surely be left when Jonathan Papelbon ultimately left for the money down in Philly, right field, and the back end of the rotation, but I, along with the Sox Brass (so far) thought these could be solved relatively cheaply. The following is an exploration of the moves the front office has made, thus far.

Closer
With Jonathan Papelbon leaving to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies for $50,000,058 (the last two numbers to match his jersey number) over four years, a length and price I think the Red Sox were wise to not match, the Sox had a bit of a whole. With Daniel Bard, the longtime supposed 'Closer of the Future,' seemingly transitioning to a role in the rotation (solving the fifth starter issue, for now), the Sox had no clear closer. None of the current bullpen arms seemed like adequate replacements as the end of the game guy, with the exception of Alfredo Aceves, who would mostly likely prepare in Spring Training to be a starter or long reliever. So, to the trading block they went. Ryan Madson and other free agent closers would ask for too much money, and likely too many years, so the trading block was the best bet. The Red Sox then traded the oft-injured utility man Jed Lowrie and spot start call-up Kyle Weiland, who had little future in the Red Sox organization, to the Houston Astros for Mark Melancon, their closer who saved 20 games in 2011. I thought this was a wonderful deal. Houston is not the same type of atmosphere as Boston, and the Astros will never be as good as the Red Sox currently are, so this may be a big step for him. But, as would eventually become apparent, he was never going to be the closer. He was going to be the set up man, replacing Bard (who still could end up back in that role if the starting thing doesn't work out).

Andrew Bailey, former Rookie of the Year with the Oakland Athletics, had been on the Red Sox radar for a while. While not overpowering, Bailey has good stuff that he knows how to use. He is arguably one of the best young closers in the game. So, as the Red Sox do best, they went out and got him, for some low prospects and Josh Reddick, who was used quite a bit in 2011, due to the fact that he was much better than an ailing, aging, and (as always) under-performing JD Drew. But this was only at times. As far as outfield prospects the Red Sox had, Reddick and Ryan Kalish both appeared Major League-ready. Kalish suffered a major shoulder injury early in 2011 and missed most of the season, but is expected to be ready by June of this year. Kalish has more upside than Reddick, too, with more speed and potential for power. He's also a dirt dog, a trait Red Sox Nation, myself in particular, respect. So, the Red Sox had a new late innings pair with Bailey and Melancon, and I am excited by the prospect!

Shortstop
Now, wait a minute. Didn't the Red Sox just trade their backup SS (Lowrie) and don't they have a fairly competent incumbent in Marco Scutaro? Yes, yes they did. But then they traded Scutaro, too, seemingly inexplicably. Then, word came out he was being shipped to free up salary space to use on helping upgrade other positions (meaning RF and the rotation). So, as of right now, the Red Sox shortstop is a platoon of Mike Aviles and recently signed Nick Punto. This offense/defense pairing seemed alright, but it's not ideal; I, personally, think a single player is necessary at such a crucial position as short. However, the Red Sox do have defensive wizard Jose Iglesias waiting at AAA Pawtucket, working on his hitting. Realistically, the Red Sox could call him up and begin starting him at the position anytime this season, if they are comfortable basically sacrificing his spot in the lineup. With the high powered offense they have, this isn't out of the real of possibilities. Also of note, according to MLB.com's recent rankings of the top prospects at every position, Iglesias, who was at the top last year, is no longer even in the top 10. There is a Red Sox SS on that list, though, named Xander Bogaerts. However, he will begin his first full season at AA this year, but could progress quickly. He hits much better than Iglesias but does not field as well. Although he is projected to switch positions at some point, he may be a better bet than Iglesias, making Iglesias expendable as trade bait. We'll see. For now, the Punto/Aviles platoon stands. It'll be interesting to see who gets the starting nod on Opening Day, or if the platoon even holds up, withstanding any possible replacement.


Right Field
The Red Sox, in the Josh Reddick-Andrew Bailey deal, also got Ryan Sweeney from Oakland. Sure, Ryan Sweeney isn't really what scouts would call "good," but he is a fairly reasonable platoon who could benefit from the change of scenery and dimensions of Fenway. Realistically, he is not a long term solution and, once Kalish returns and proves himself healthy, Sweeney could be on his way out. A solid fourth or fifth outfielder, Sweeney was not acquired for his skill: He was acquired because of Bailey. There is also always the option of Darnell McDonald, whose stock in the organization and height in the Red Sox depth chart has been quickly plummeting, in my eyes, since he hit that one grand slam two summers ago. The Red Sox used some of the money saved by trading Scutaro to sign Cody Ross, a San Francisco Giants post season hero. Cody Ross is much better than McDonald and Sweeney, but it is unclear if he wins a starting job out of Spring Training. I am holding out until Kalish is healthy and takes over. Hopefully Ross and McDonald/Sweeney can keep the ship afloat until he returns.

Starting Rotation
Lastly, the part of the team that is perhaps the most important, the starting pitchers. The Red Sox have their two aces of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, plus up and coming star Clay Buchholz, who, after a stellar 2010, spent the majority of 2011 on the DL. He will hopefully bounce back and regain his former poise. Beyond that the Red Sox have a bunch of maybes. There's Daniel Bard, who will be transitioning to starter after spending his entire major league career in the bullpen. This will hopefully work out fine for him, and, even at his possible worst, would still make a solid #4 or #5 starter. Then, there is Alfredo Aceves, the most diverse pitcher on the staff. He very well could be a starter, and he's done his time to deserve it. I think he would make a great starter, but the Red Sox bullpen may still be the best use of him. The Red Sox have made several low-risk, high-reward moves by signing aging veterans to minor league deals. They will compete for a place in the rotation in Spring Training, but the bar is set low, so if they don't, it's off to Pawtucket for them, no harm done. These vets are longtime Rockie Aaron Cook, former contract-regret Carlos Silva, and Vincente Padilla. These pieces are all maybes, but they could be surprises, like Bartolo Colon was for the Yankees last year, after taking a mysterious injection. The Red Sox have also been linked to young pitchers on the trading block, like the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez, the White Sox' Gavin Floyd, and the Cubs' Matt Garza, who would come with a pretty steep cost. Regardless of what happens, the Red Sox have the door open for the back end of their rotation, and it is a fine position to be in at the tail-end of January.

The Red Sox 2012 season prospects are looking up, even if not all the pieces are sorted out. The coaching staff has been finalized, including an exciting new manager in Bobby Valentine, who is already making his rounds around the area, and with the players, having met with each and every returning member already. The Red Sox front office should be proud of the job they have done so far, especially considering the state of Red Sox Nation in October.