Justin Verlander and the MVP Race

Well, we've entered the home stretch. The playoff teams are pretty much set, safe for the AL West, and who will end up winning the AL East (the loser gets the Wild Card spot). Even the AL Cy Young is pretty much wrapped up for Detroit's Justin Verlander. So, the thoughts on everyone's mind is the AL MVP race. The front runners are New York's Curtis Granderson, Boston's Adrian Gonzalez, and Detroit's Justin Verlander. There are other candidates, but these are the three most likely to win. Let's explore each of these players statistics.

As of today, September 9, Curtis Granderson is hitting .270 with 38 home runs, 109 RBI and 24 stolen bases in the potent Yankees lineup.

Adrian Gonzalez is leading the league in batting average, hitting .343 with 24 home runs and 106 RBI in the only-slightly-less potent Red Sox lineup.

Verlander is a pitcher, and those statistics cannot be easily compared to that of position players, so we will discuss Granderson vs. Gonzalez first.

With those three major statistics, it is pretty much a toss up. Granderson has many more stolen bases, and 14 more home runs, but Gonzalez is hitting a whopping 77 points higher than Granderson. Even the more advanced stats don't give you a clear winner here. Gonzalez beats Granderson in OBP (.407 vs .374) and OPS (.964 vs .945), while Granderson edges out Gonzalez in slugging (.570 vs .557). If you wanted to see what types of hits are making up these numbers, you would compare Gonzalez 21 more doubles (43 vs 22) against Granderson's 7 more triples (10 vs 3). Gonzalez is approaching 200 hits on the season, while Granderson is 10 away from 150. Gonzalez has about 50 more at-bats and 15 more total bases on the season. So, what is basically being shown here is that it is a wash, and could go either way, between these two players. However, there is that Verlander guy, who already has 22 wins, and could reach 24 or 25, if he's lucky. (He doesn't need much luck; you'll see why in a minute)

This season, Justin Verlander has been, hands down, the most dominant starting pitcher in all of baseball. He holds an incomparable 22-5 record, including winning his last 10 decisions. His ERA stands at an impressive 2.44, with an amazing WHIP of 0.91. He is also untouchable, with 232 strikeouts. These numbers have already wrapped up the Cy Young for him, and he figures to have two or three more starts this season to add to those numbers. He throws hard, goes long (4 complete games, at least 26 of his 31 starts have been 6 innings or more and he has pitched 229 innings) and carries his team. It can be assumed that the 5 starts he made where he didn't get quality starts were the ones that he lost. Simply put, Justin Verlander is absolutely filthy, and the best pitcher in the game, without question. If you think CC Sabathia has good stats (he does), then Verlander is godly. Verlander makes Sabathia look like a second-tier pitcher, which is a difficult feat to accomplish. What's more, is he the only guy in Detroit's pitching staff that a manager could turn to to pitch a big game when the Tiger's less-than-amazing (but still pretty good) offense can't score enough to win without a good pitching performance. Verlander goes well beyond that; every single time he steps onto that mound, the Tigers stand to win that game, regardless of their offensive production. 

Those of you not as entirely wrapped up in baseball's ins and outs like I am must be now thinking "Wait. Why is there any question about MVP? It is clearly Verlander!" You, my dear friends, are absolutely correct. Or, rather, you should be absolutely correct. The award is for the Most Valuable Player, right? The player that is more valuable than any other. I am a die-hard Red Sox fan, and even I would argue that Dustin Pedroia should not have won the MVP in 2008. Yes, he had absolutely phenomenal numbers, but his whole team was very, very good. Sure, they wouldn't have been as good if he wasn't there, but he didn't save them by any means. Heck, another guy on his team (Kevin Youkilis) finished third in MVP voting. So, you see now that the MVP award is not really an award for the most valuable player on a team; It is more like an award for the best player, and that is only sort of a correct definition for it. 

Even if you go off of the assertion that the award is given to the player with the best stats, Verlander appears the best bet. But here in lies the issue: Justin Verlander is a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers only play once every four or five days. When the sports writers across the country make their votes for MVP, this absolutely is taken into high consideration. Sure, Justin Verlander was the most incredible player on the face of the earth...but he only did it once every five days. So, although Verlander's stats are incredible, they are diminished by the fact that he plays five times less often than a Curtis Granderson or an Adrian Gonzalez. The stats are seen less impressively due to his substantial amount less games played. How can one be the most valuable to any team if they do not play more often than a maximum of twice a week?

With all the facts on the table, the voting sports writers have a tough decision to make. Do they give first place votes to a guy with the best stats, but that only plays every five days? Or do they give it to one of the two guys who are pretty much equal in their value to their teams? Or, do they give it to the Dark Horse of the race, Jose Bautista, who appears headed for his second straight year of leading the majors in home runs? 

Bautista's existence seems to only weaken Granderson in a battle against Gonzalez, as his home runs seem less impressive with a guy with more being in the race. Also, Granderson is joined by fellow Yankee Mark Teixeira, who has 36 home runs. Gonzalez also has trouble from his own team, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia also putting up incredible numbers that will warrant some votes for the lower places in the race. Actually, Ellsbury could even replace Gonzalez at the forefront of Red Sox MVP candidates, with a .317/25/89 line with 36 stolen bases. It is so close between a decent sized group of hitters, it is difficult to pick a leader. For this reason, perhaps Verlander will get more attention and take home the MVP, as he rightly deserves. But, keep in mind, the last time a pitcher won the MVP it was Dennis Eckersly in 1992. Eck is one of the best pitchers of all time, and is a Hall Of Famer. The last time a pitcher won the Cy Young and MVP was in 1986, when Roger Clemens did it. Does Verlander have what it takes to match The Rocket? Or, more importantly, do the sports writers have the gusto to give him what he truly deserves?

September 1, 2011: Red Sox vs. Yankees

Karma seems to be catching up. After not getting to go to Fenway at all for five-ish years, I have now been four times in the last year. And they've all been GREAT times: The first one was Mother's Day in 2010, where my friend Jacob, whose father has season tickets, invited me to join them for the matinee, which just so happened to feature the arch-rival New York Yankees. The Red Sox won 9-3, and the seats were phenomenal. I had a great time. The second game was the anniversary of a game my family and I had attended in 2002. May 18, 2002 we saw Pedro Martinez hurl an eight inning, nine strikeout performance against the Seattle Mariners, a Sox win. On May 18, 2011, we saw Clay Buccholz throw seven innings of no-run ball, with seven strikeouts. After a slow start to the season, the Sox were now in the middle of an (at that point) five game winning streaking, pushing their record over .500 with a 22-20 record following the game. The next game was with my girlfriend and her temple on July 27 of this year. The Red Sox faced the Kansas City Royals and won 12-5. The hit parade was led by Big Papi, who hit a grand slam, pushing him beyond the 1,00 RBI mark with the Red Sox. It was very exciting to be part of history like that.

That brings me to yesterday's game against the Yankees. Last week I got contacted by my friend Sam asking if I'd like to join him, his twin brother and younger brother to go to the game. I have been good friends with Sam, Dom and Frank for a very long time but do not get to see them as much as I would like. Being with them alone made it a great time. Yeah, the Red Sox lost, but I find myself completely capable of enjoying myself at a baseball game, even if my team does not win. What could be more fun than a Red Sox-Yankees game at Fenway Park, with seats in the bleachers? That answer, technically, is the Red Sox winning that game, but that's beside the point. The bleachers are the most fun place to sit. Sure, you're about a half mile from the action, but you're not going to find fans that are any more 'real' than those who sit in the bleachers.

I had an interesting interaction with a young man seated in the row in front of us. Derek Jeter came up to bat, and I began jeering at him, calling him overrated. The man turned around and said, "How? He's got 3,000 hits!"
"I'm not questioning his offense. Of course he can hit. It's his fielding that I'm referring to."
"He's got like a million Gold Gloves!!"
"And he deserved maybe two of them!"

The conversation petered off after that, but the situation is still laughable to me. This guy was a Red Sox fan sitting in the bleachers in a game against the hated Yankees, supporting a man that is the epitome of Yankee-dom. It was baffling. Yes, yes, I know, Derek Jeter is known as a classy dude, and is absolutely a likable guy. If I had to pick a favorite (current) Yankee, he would be third, after Rivera and Granderson. However, I still have my beliefs, that are based on facts. Facts show that Derek Jeter has one of the worst ranges of major league shortstops; bottom of the league. Yes, he does regularly end up with a pretty good fielding percentage, but the truth is that it is only so high because of his lack of range; Jeter is unable to even attempt many plays that most other shortstops can get to. These more talented shortstops are sometimes unable to make these plays cleanly, resulting in errors and a lower fielding percentage. Shortstop is one of the most difficult positions to play, so I am in no way diminishing his athletic ability; he is way more athletic than I am, and can make plays I could never dream of making. However, most of the plays he makes are routine. As his age has advanced, so has range. I'm not sure of the exact statistic, but he ranks incredibly low UZR or WAR or one of those other advanced sabremetrics. Basically, if you wanted a good defensive shortstop, you would not want Derek Jeter. Please feel free to debate me on this issue in the comments, or in person.

I left for the game with the impression that Sox had a pretty good chance to win, with AJ "I am a terrible pitcher" Burnett on the mound for New York. But, of course, Burnett decides to pitch relatively acceptably and get the win. It was probably just to spite me. Jon Lester had a rocky 40+ pitch first inning and had one of his shortest pitching outings ever, taking the loss. The Red Sox had next to no offense, safe for Pedroia's Monster Shot that put the Sox up 2-1 at that point. They did not score again, and the Yankees did, so the Sox lost.

So, the Red Sox lead in the AL East went back to 0.5 over the Yankees. As I am writing this, the Red Sox are getting pummeled by the Texas Rangers 10-0, and and Yankees appear headed towards victory. If all remains as it is now, the Sox will be down a half game after tonight. Sure, we still clearly have control of the Wild Card, but we want the division! There is less than a month of the regular season, so it's crunch time. Our offense can't keep not producing like this. I have faith, but the Red Sox need more than just my faith; they need offense and at least decent pitching. It's go time!

Please leave any comments you have. I'll post again in a week!